Target Price Playground
MU
$1,140.31
๐ข
MU IV: 88.0% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 114.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1230 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1140.31 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1230 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $154.95 ยท ฮ 0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1230 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$24,464 (24.8%) on $98,536 risked, vs +$8,969 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $114,031. Options give 3.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1230 by Aug 21
+$24,464
+24.8% on $98,536 risked
Max Profit
+$24,464
If the stock โฅ $1230 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$98,536
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$985.36
-13.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
48.17 / 153.57 / -192.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $912 (-20%) | -$12,088 | -$10,140 | -$8,221 | -$7,311 |
| $969 (-15%) | -$8,112 | -$5,796 | -$3,282 | -$1,610 |
| $1026 (-10%) | -$4,464 | -$1,815 | +$1,278 | +$4,092 |
| $1083 (-5%) | -$1,143 | +$1,786 | +$5,387 | +$9,793 |
| $1118 (-2%) | +$695 | +$3,764 | +$7,618 | +$13,214 |
| $1140 (0%) โ spot | +$1,858 | +$5,007 | +$9,004 | +$15,495 |
| $1163 (+2%) | +$2,972 | +$6,191 | +$10,309 | +$17,776 |
| $1197 (+5%) | +$4,553 | +$7,856 | +$12,114 | +$21,197 |
| $1230 (+8%) โ target | +$5,966 | +$9,327 | +$13,670 | +$24,464 |
| $1254 (+10%) | +$6,958 | +$10,349 | +$14,726 | +$24,464 |
| $1311 (+15%) | +$9,094 | +$12,512 | +$16,875 | +$24,464 |
| $1368 (+20%) | +$10,982 | +$14,372 | +$18,606 | +$24,464 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.