NetFlix (NFLX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$67.29
2.24 (3.45%)
▲
5d:
-7.33%
30d:
-5.71%
90d:
-4.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 19, 2026 at $69.59 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NFLX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NFLX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.90
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.48
3.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $67.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.74 to $74.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.1) compared to its historical average (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.10, while resistance sits at $73.07. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: NFLX scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.75 (+39.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.10, while resistance sits at $73.07. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: NFLX scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.75 (+39.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$67.74 -
$74.22
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NFLX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.5% below Wall St target ($90.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.74 -
$74.22
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.10
Resistance Level
$73.07
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.15
Wall Street Target
$90.75
(+39.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
28.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 22.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.12
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$53.74
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$48.85
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→23)
$64.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.6%)
$91.11
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 6.6%)
$78.69
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 6.6%)
$66.89
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.46
Bull Case
$82.80
(+27%)
Analyst growth 9.6%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$75.28
(+16%)
Market implied 9.6%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$46.71
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$86.45
(+32.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NFLX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NFLX price and gamma walls.
