NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$71.71
-1.46 (-2.00%)
▼
5d:
+2.31%
30d:
-3.34%
90d:
-23.39%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.69
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.08
1.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $71.71, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.09 to $75.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.8) compared to its historical average (23.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $94.33 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $94.33 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$70.09 -
$75.10
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($94.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.09 -
$75.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.69
Resistance Level
$73.76
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.81
Wall Street Target
$94.33
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
28.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 23.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.19
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$61.09
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$56.39
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→24)
$71.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.5%)
$95.42
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$86.56
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 6.5%)
$73.58
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.16
Bull Case
$97.13
(+35%)
Analyst growth 20.7%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$88.30
(+23%)
Market implied 20.7%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$49.76
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.8 to 23.9
Stabilization Target:
$91.14
(+27.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-04-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
420550 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
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