NetFlix (NFLX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$77.44
1.43 (1.88%)
â˛
5d:
-6.33%
30d:
+4.35%
90d:
-4.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $79.41 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NFLX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NFLX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.81
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $77.44, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.00 to $80.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (23.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $75.03, while resistance sits at $83.60.
Market Sentiment: NFLX scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.66 (+23.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $75.03, while resistance sits at $83.60.
Market Sentiment: NFLX scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.66 (+23.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$75.00 -
$80.94
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NFLX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($93.66)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.00 -
$80.94
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.03
Resistance Level
$83.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.92
Wall Street Target
$93.66
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
28.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 23.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.98
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$68.17
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$64.55
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20â24)
$76.17
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.5%)
$92.90
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$91.74
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$77.98
(+3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$101.32
(+33%)
Analyst growth 21.2%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$92.11
(+21%)
Market implied 21.2%, PE stable at 24.1
Bear Case
$51.70
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.9 to 23.5
Stabilization Target:
$89.68
(+18.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 3:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-04-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
420550 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
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Advanced NFLX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NFLX price and gamma walls.
