NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$72.88
-4.50 (-5.82%)
▼
5d:
-9.29%
30d:
-17.27%
90d:
-20.63%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NFLX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NFLX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.40
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.00
4.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $72.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.40 to $87.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.0) compared to its historical average (24.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.15 (+56.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.15 (+56.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$79.40 -
$87.99
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NFLX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 56.6% below Wall St target ($114.15)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.40 -
$87.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.00
Resistance Level
$88.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.04
Wall Street Target
$114.15
(+56.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.4%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 24.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.83
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$61.28
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$56.20
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→25)
$72.92
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.6%)
$100.93
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 6.6%)
$88.21
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 6.6%)
$74.98
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$105.12
(+44%)
Analyst growth 23.5%, PE expands to 27.5
Base Case
$95.56
(+31%)
Market implied 23.5%, PE stable at 25.0
Bear Case
$52.62
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 24.7
Stabilization Target:
$94.56
(+29.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-04-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
420550 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
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