Target Price Playground
NVDA
$239.24
🟢
NVDA IV: 36.8% — LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 51.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $240 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $14.8 · Δ 0.55
SHORT CALL · $260 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $6.8 · Δ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $270 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,200 (150.0%) on $800 risked, vs +$3,076 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $23,924. Options give 11.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $270 by Dec 18
+$1,200
+150.0% on $800 risked
Max Profit
+$1,200
If the stock ≥ $260 at expiry
Max Loss
−$800
Net debit
Break-even
$248.00
+3.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
22.26 / -1.92 / 2.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$671 | -$733 | -$789 | -$800 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$563 | -$646 | -$751 | -$800 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$415 | -$502 | -$646 | -$800 |
| $227 (-5%) | -$233 | -$301 | -$442 | -$800 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$112 | -$160 | -$269 | -$800 |
| $239 (0%) ← spot | -$29 | -$61 | -$138 | -$800 |
| $244 (+2%) | +$56 | +$41 | +$2 | -$398 |
| $251 (+5%) | +$181 | +$195 | +$217 | +$320 |
| $263 (+10%) | +$383 | +$439 | +$552 | +$1,200 |
| $270 (+13%) ← target | +$489 | +$566 | +$714 | +$1,200 |
| $275 (+15%) | +$564 | +$652 | +$817 | +$1,200 |
| $287 (+20%) | +$718 | +$822 | +$994 | +$1,200 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.