Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
NVDA
$239.24
🟢
NVDA IV: 36.8% — LOW (-28.2% vs 30d avg of 51.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $250 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $6.34 · Δ -0.25
P&L at Expiry Now $239 Target $250 $167 $239 $311
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If NVDA hits $250 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$634 (3.0%) on $-634 credit (max loss $21,366), vs +$1,076 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $23,924. Options give 0.7× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if NVDA hits $250 by Dec 18
+$634
+3.0% on $21,366 max loss
Max Profit
+$634
If the stock ≥ $220 at expiry
Max Loss
−$21,366
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$213.66
-10.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
25.36 / 7.83 / -34.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

NVDA Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$191 (-20%) -$2,534 -$2,393 -$2,256 -$2,227
$203 (-15%) -$1,722 -$1,516 -$1,263 -$1,031
$215 (-10%) -$1,058 -$812 -$481 +$166
$227 (-5%) -$541 -$286 +$53 +$634
$234 (-2%) -$296 -$49 +$264 +$634
$239 (0%) ← spot -$156 +$79 +$366 +$634
$244 (+2%) -$35 +$187 +$444 +$634
$250 (+4%) ← target +$95 +$297 +$514 +$634
$263 (+10%) +$307 +$460 +$594 +$634
$275 (+15%) +$431 +$543 +$621 +$634
$287 (+20%) +$511 +$588 +$630 +$634
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.