Target Price Playground
NVDA
$239.24
🟢
NVDA IV: 36.8% — LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 51.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $240 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $14.8 · Δ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $270 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$1,520 (102.7%) on $1,480 risked, vs +$3,076 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $23,924. Options give 8.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $270 by Dec 18
+$1,520
+102.7% on $1,480 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$1,480
Premium paid
Break-even
$254.80
+6.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.83 / -10.96 / 42.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$1,270 | -$1,389 | -$1,468 | -$1,480 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$1,064 | -$1,254 | -$1,423 | -$1,480 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$743 | -$1,005 | -$1,290 | -$1,480 |
| $227 (-5%) | -$291 | -$609 | -$999 | -$1,480 |
| $234 (-2%) | +$46 | -$293 | -$723 | -$1,480 |
| $239 (0%) ← spot | +$297 | -$50 | -$493 | -$1,480 |
| $244 (+2%) | +$570 | +$220 | -$226 | -$1,078 |
| $251 (+5%) | +$1,017 | +$670 | +$239 | -$360 |
| $263 (+10%) | +$1,853 | +$1,531 | +$1,160 | +$836 |
| $270 (+13%) ← target | +$2,376 | +$2,076 | +$1,750 | +$1,520 |
| $275 (+15%) | +$2,787 | +$2,505 | +$2,214 | +$2,033 |
| $287 (+20%) | +$3,798 | +$3,560 | +$3,343 | +$3,229 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.