Target Price Playground
NVDA
$239.24
🟢
NVDA IV: 36.8% — LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 51.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $240 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $13.65 · Δ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $210 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$1,635 (119.8%) on $1,365 risked, vs $-2,924 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $23,924. Options give 9.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $210 by Dec 18
+$1,635
+119.8% on $1,365 risked
Max Profit
+$22,635
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$1,365
Premium paid
Break-even
$226.35
-5.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-45.73 / -9.13 / 42.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | +$3,494 | +$3,446 | +$3,437 | +$3,496 |
| $203 (-15%) | +$2,504 | +$2,385 | +$2,286 | +$2,300 |
| $210 (-12%) ← target | +$2,002 | +$1,841 | +$1,680 | +$1,635 |
| $215 (-10%) | +$1,628 | +$1,437 | +$1,222 | +$1,103 |
| $227 (-5%) | +$883 | +$636 | +$317 | -$93 |
| $234 (-2%) | +$502 | +$234 | -$124 | -$811 |
| $239 (0%) ← spot | +$276 | -$0 | -$372 | -$1,289 |
| $244 (+2%) | +$71 | -$209 | -$584 | -$1,365 |
| $251 (+5%) | -$200 | -$476 | -$837 | -$1,365 |
| $263 (+10%) | -$560 | -$811 | -$1,111 | -$1,365 |
| $275 (+15%) | -$823 | -$1,035 | -$1,255 | -$1,365 |
| $287 (+20%) | -$1,008 | -$1,176 | -$1,322 | -$1,365 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.