Target Price Playground
NVDA
$239.24
๐ข
NVDA IV: 36.8% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 51.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
72d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $239.24 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $270 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$3,076 (12.9%) on $23,924 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $270 by Dec 18
+$3,076
+12.9% on $23,924 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$23,924
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$239.24
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Nov 6 | Dec 6 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$4,785 | -$4,785 | -$4,785 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$3,589 | -$3,589 | -$3,589 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$2,392 | -$2,392 | -$2,392 |
| $227 (-5%) | -$1,196 | -$1,196 | -$1,196 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$478 | -$478 | -$478 |
| $239 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $244 (+2%) | +$478 | +$478 | +$478 |
| $251 (+5%) | +$1,196 | +$1,196 | +$1,196 |
| $263 (+10%) | +$2,392 | +$2,392 | +$2,392 |
| $270 (+13%) โ target | +$3,076 | +$3,076 | +$3,076 |
| $275 (+15%) | +$3,589 | +$3,589 | +$3,589 |
| $287 (+20%) | +$4,785 | +$4,785 | +$4,785 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.