Target Price Playground
NVDA
$210.96
๐ข
NVDA IV: 41.4% โ LOW
(-33.6% vs 30d avg of 62.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $210.96 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $230 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.63 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $230 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$2,767 (13.7%) on $20,233 risked, vs +$1,904 (9.0%) for 100 shares on $21,096. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $230 by Sep 18
+$2,767
+13.7% on $20,233 risked
Max Profit
+$2,767
If the stock โฅ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$20,233
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$202.33
-4.09% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.04 / 11.01 / -33.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $169 (-20%) | -$3,430 | -$3,378 | -$3,357 | -$3,356 |
| $179 (-15%) | -$2,463 | -$2,366 | -$2,308 | -$2,301 |
| $190 (-10%) | -$1,561 | -$1,404 | -$1,279 | -$1,247 |
| $200 (-5%) | -$741 | -$521 | -$299 | -$192 |
| $207 (-2%) | -$297 | -$40 | +$244 | +$441 |
| $211 (0%) โ spot | -$22 | +$257 | +$581 | +$863 |
| $215 (+2%) | +$236 | +$534 | +$893 | +$1,285 |
| $222 (+5%) | +$589 | +$909 | +$1,311 | +$1,918 |
| $230 (+9%) โ target | +$1,002 | +$1,338 | +$1,768 | +$2,767 |
| $243 (+15%) | +$1,491 | +$1,823 | +$2,235 | +$2,767 |
| $253 (+20%) | +$1,799 | +$2,109 | +$2,464 | +$2,767 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.