Target Price Playground
PANW
$375.09
๐ข
PANW IV: 58.9% โ LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 71.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $375.09 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $405 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.34 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $405 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$5,625 (16.1%) on $34,875 risked, vs +$2,991 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $37,509. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $405 by Nov 20
+$5,625
+16.1% on $34,875 risked
Max Profit
+$5,625
If the stock โฅ $405 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$34,875
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$348.75
-7.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.13 / 29.83 / -62.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300 (-20%) | -$5,367 | -$5,101 | -$4,904 | -$4,868 |
| $319 (-15%) | -$3,821 | -$3,444 | -$3,100 | -$2,992 |
| $338 (-10%) | -$2,404 | -$1,913 | -$1,387 | -$1,117 |
| $356 (-5%) | -$1,127 | -$532 | +$182 | +$759 |
| $368 (-2%) | -$433 | +$215 | +$1,031 | +$1,884 |
| $375 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$678 | +$1,553 | +$2,634 |
| $383 (+2%) | +$409 | +$1,112 | +$2,037 | +$3,384 |
| $394 (+5%) | +$979 | +$1,711 | +$2,690 | +$4,509 |
| $405 (+8%) โ target | +$1,492 | +$2,242 | +$3,251 | +$5,625 |
| $413 (+10%) | +$1,814 | +$2,569 | +$3,584 | +$5,625 |
| $431 (+15%) | +$2,515 | +$3,265 | +$4,248 | +$5,625 |
| $450 (+20%) | +$3,096 | +$3,816 | +$4,716 | +$5,625 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.