Target Price Playground
PLTR
$192.07
🟢
PLTR IV: 53.5% — LOW
(-15.4% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $190 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $15.45 · Δ -0.42
SHORT PUT · $175 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.1 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PLTR hits $170 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$865 (136.2%) on $635 risked, vs $-2,207 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $19,207. Options give 11.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PLTR is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PLTR hits $170 by Dec 18
+$865
+136.2% on $635 risked
Max Profit
+$865
If the stock ≤ $175 at expiry
Max Loss
−$635
Net debit
Break-even
$183.65
-4.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-13.39 / -1.0 / 5.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PLTR Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $154 (-20%) | +$535 | +$597 | +$708 | +$865 |
| $163 (-15%) | +$416 | +$462 | +$560 | +$865 |
| $170 (-11%) ← target | +$326 | +$356 | +$425 | +$865 |
| $173 (-10%) | +$287 | +$310 | +$363 | +$865 |
| $182 (-5%) | +$157 | +$150 | +$140 | +$118 |
| $188 (-2%) | +$80 | +$56 | +$9 | -$458 |
| $192 (0%) ← spot | +$31 | -$4 | -$74 | -$635 |
| $196 (+2%) | -$17 | -$62 | -$152 | -$635 |
| $202 (+5%) | -$86 | -$144 | -$257 | -$635 |
| $211 (+10%) | -$190 | -$264 | -$397 | -$635 |
| $221 (+15%) | -$281 | -$362 | -$494 | -$635 |
| $230 (+20%) | -$357 | -$439 | -$556 | -$635 |
Uses PLTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.