Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
PLTR
$192.07
🟢
PLTR IV: 53.5% — LOW (-15.4% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $200 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $175 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.1 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry Now $192 Target $200 $134 $192 $250
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If PLTR hits $200 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$910 (5.5%) on $-910 credit (max loss $16,590), vs +$793 (4.1%) for 100 shares on $19,207. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PLTR is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if PLTR hits $200 by Dec 18
+$910
+5.5% on $16,590 max loss
Max Profit
+$910
If the stock ≥ $175 at expiry
Max Loss
−$16,590
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$165.90
-13.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
86%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
28.82 / 9.96 / -27.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

PLTR Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$154 (-20%) -$1,833 -$1,629 -$1,392 -$1,224
$163 (-15%) -$1,256 -$1,008 -$688 -$264
$173 (-10%) -$771 -$497 -$131 +$696
$182 (-5%) -$374 -$95 +$274 +$910
$188 (-2%) -$175 +$99 +$451 +$910
$192 (0%) ← spot -$56 +$211 +$545 +$910
$196 (+2%) +$51 +$309 +$623 +$910
$200 (+4%) ← target +$153 +$401 +$690 +$910
$211 (+10%) +$383 +$594 +$809 +$910
$221 (+15%) +$528 +$704 +$861 +$910
$230 (+20%) +$635 +$778 +$887 +$910
Uses PLTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.