Target Price Playground
PLTR
$192.07
🟢
PLTR IV: 53.5% — LOW
(-15.4% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $190 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $17.5 · Δ -0.42
SHORT PUT · $180 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $10.95 · Δ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PLTR hits $180 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$883 (134.8%) on $655 risked, vs $-1,207 (-6.3%) for 100 shares on $19,207. Options give 21.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PLTR is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PLTR hits $180 by Dec 18
+$883
+134.8% on $655 risked
Max Profit
+$850
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$632
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$198.59
+3.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-8.63 / 1.43 / 6.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PLTR Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $154 (-20%) | +$302 | +$350 | +$408 | +$373 |
| $163 (-15%) | +$272 | +$333 | +$428 | +$501 |
| $173 (-10%) | +$227 | +$290 | +$405 | +$728 |
| $180 (-6%) ← target | +$185 | +$243 | +$355 | +$974 |
| $182 (-5%) | +$168 | +$224 | +$332 | +$830 |
| $188 (-2%) | +$127 | +$175 | +$266 | +$526 |
| $192 (0%) ← spot | +$98 | +$140 | +$216 | +$350 |
| $196 (+2%) | +$68 | +$102 | +$161 | +$194 |
| $202 (+5%) | +$21 | +$43 | +$74 | -$5 |
| $211 (+10%) | -$58 | -$58 | -$74 | -$252 |
| $221 (+15%) | -$137 | -$157 | -$211 | -$416 |
| $230 (+20%) | -$212 | -$248 | -$328 | -$518 |
Uses PLTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.