Target Price Playground
PLTR
$192.07
🟢
PLTR IV: 53.5% — LOW
(-15.4% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $190 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $15.45 · Δ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PLTR hits $170 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$455 (29.4%) on $1,545 risked, vs $-2,207 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $19,207. Options give 2.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PLTR is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PLTR hits $170 by Dec 18
+$455
+29.4% on $1,545 risked
Max Profit
+$17,455
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$1,545
Premium paid
Break-even
$174.55
-9.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-42.21 / -10.95 / 33.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PLTR Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $154 (-20%) | +$2,368 | +$2,226 | +$2,100 | +$2,089 |
| $163 (-15%) | +$1,672 | +$1,470 | +$1,248 | +$1,129 |
| $170 (-11%) ← target | +$1,232 | +$994 | +$706 | +$455 |
| $173 (-10%) | +$1,058 | +$807 | +$494 | +$169 |
| $182 (-5%) | +$531 | +$245 | -$134 | -$792 |
| $188 (-2%) | +$255 | -$43 | -$442 | -$1,368 |
| $192 (0%) ← spot | +$87 | -$215 | -$619 | -$1,545 |
| $196 (+2%) | -$68 | -$371 | -$775 | -$1,545 |
| $202 (+5%) | -$278 | -$579 | -$970 | -$1,545 |
| $211 (+10%) | -$574 | -$858 | -$1,206 | -$1,545 |
| $221 (+15%) | -$808 | -$1,066 | -$1,355 | -$1,545 |
| $230 (+20%) | -$992 | -$1,217 | -$1,443 | -$1,545 |
Uses PLTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.