Target Price Playground
SBUX
$103.67
🟢
SBUX IV: 29.0% — LOW
(-46.1% vs 30d avg of 53.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $91 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.94 · Δ -0.52
SHORT PUT · $95 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.25 · Δ -0.19
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $91 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$631 (171.0%) on $369 risked, vs $-1,267 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $10,367. Options give 14.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $91. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $91 by Dec 18
+$631
+171.0% on $369 risked
Max Profit
+$631
If the stock ≤ $95 at expiry
Max Loss
−$369
Net debit
Break-even
$101.31
-2.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-33.02 / -1.16 / 5.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 (-20%) | +$574 | +$602 | +$625 | +$631 |
| $88 (-15%) | +$491 | +$535 | +$593 | +$631 |
| $91 (-12%) ← target | +$420 | +$466 | +$538 | +$631 |
| $93 (-10%) | +$354 | +$394 | +$466 | +$631 |
| $98 (-5%) | +$180 | +$191 | +$213 | +$282 |
| $102 (-2%) | +$73 | +$62 | +$40 | -$29 |
| $104 (0%) ← spot | +$5 | -$19 | -$66 | -$236 |
| $106 (+2%) | -$58 | -$92 | -$156 | -$369 |
| $109 (+5%) | -$141 | -$184 | -$256 | -$369 |
| $114 (+10%) | -$244 | -$286 | -$339 | -$369 |
| $119 (+15%) | -$307 | -$337 | -$363 | -$369 |
| $124 (+20%) | -$341 | -$358 | -$368 | -$369 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.