Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
SBUX
$103.67
🟢
SBUX IV: 29.0% — LOW (-46.1% vs 30d avg of 53.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $110 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $95 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.25 · Δ -0.19
P&L at Expiry Now $104 Target $110 $73 $104 $135
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If SBUX hits $110 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$125 (1.3%) on $-125 credit (max loss $9,375), vs +$633 (6.1%) for 100 shares on $10,367. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if SBUX hits $110 by Dec 18
+$125
+1.3% on $9,375 max loss
Max Profit
+$125
If the stock ≥ $95 at expiry
Max Loss
−$9,375
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$93.75
-9.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
19.06 / 3.11 / -9.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

SBUX Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$83 (-20%) -$1,083 -$1,070 -$1,066 -$1,081
$88 (-15%) -$671 -$627 -$581 -$563
$93 (-10%) -$350 -$285 -$198 -$45
$98 (-5%) -$129 -$64 +$20 +$125
$102 (-2%) -$41 +$16 +$80 +$125
$104 (0%) ← spot +$2 +$51 +$101 +$125
$106 (+2%) +$36 +$77 +$113 +$125
$109 (+5%) +$72 +$101 +$121 +$125
$110 (+6%) ← target +$81 +$107 +$123 +$125
$114 (+10%) +$104 +$118 +$125 +$125
$119 (+15%) +$117 +$123 +$125 +$125
$124 (+20%) +$122 +$125 +$125 +$125
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.