Target Price Playground
SBUX
$103.67
🟢
SBUX IV: 29.0% — LOW
(-46.1% vs 30d avg of 53.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $103.67 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.95 · Δ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $110 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$828 (8.1%) on $10,172 risked, vs +$633 (6.1%) for 100 shares on $10,367. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $110 by Dec 18
+$828
+8.1% on $10,172 risked
Max Profit
+$828
If the stock ≥ $110 at expiry
Max Loss
−$10,172
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$101.72
-1.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
70.07 / 3.76 / -13.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 (-20%) | -$1,880 | -$1,878 | -$1,878 | -$1,878 |
| $88 (-15%) | -$1,371 | -$1,362 | -$1,360 | -$1,360 |
| $93 (-10%) | -$880 | -$856 | -$843 | -$842 |
| $98 (-5%) | -$430 | -$378 | -$335 | -$323 |
| $102 (-2%) | -$190 | -$120 | -$49 | -$12 |
| $104 (0%) ← spot | -$45 | +$35 | +$126 | +$195 |
| $106 (+2%) | +$85 | +$175 | +$283 | +$402 |
| $109 (+5%) | +$255 | +$353 | +$478 | +$713 |
| $110 (+6%) ← target | +$310 | +$409 | +$536 | +$828 |
| $114 (+10%) | +$469 | +$566 | +$684 | +$828 |
| $119 (+15%) | +$605 | +$687 | +$772 | +$828 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$685 | +$746 | +$799 | +$828 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.