Target Price Playground
SBUX
$103.67
🟢
SBUX IV: 29.0% — LOW
(-46.1% vs 30d avg of 53.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $98 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $105 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $5.75 · Δ -0.5
SHORT PUT · $98 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.0 · Δ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $98 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$396 (105.6%) on $375 risked, vs $-567 (-5.5%) for 100 shares on $10,367. Options give 19.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $98. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $98 by Dec 18
+$396
+105.6% on $375 risked
Max Profit
+$384
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$374
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$104.18
+0.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-23.19 / -0.03 / 6.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 (-20%) | +$281 | +$289 | +$292 | +$290 |
| $88 (-15%) | +$259 | +$280 | +$298 | +$295 |
| $93 (-10%) | +$209 | +$239 | +$283 | +$323 |
| $98 (-5%) ← target | +$135 | +$162 | +$209 | +$397 |
| $102 (-2%) | +$64 | +$81 | +$109 | +$146 |
| $104 (0%) ← spot | +$20 | +$29 | +$41 | +$27 |
| $106 (+2%) | -$24 | -$23 | -$28 | -$72 |
| $109 (+5%) | -$88 | -$100 | -$123 | -$187 |
| $114 (+10%) | -$184 | -$207 | -$245 | -$300 |
| $119 (+15%) | -$256 | -$282 | -$315 | -$350 |
| $124 (+20%) | -$306 | -$327 | -$350 | -$368 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.