Target Price Playground
SBUX
$103.67
🟢
SBUX IV: 29.0% — LOW
(-46.1% vs 30d avg of 53.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.7 · Δ 0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $115 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$630 (170.3%) on $370 risked, vs +$1,133 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $10,367. Options give 15.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $115 by Dec 18
+$630
+170.3% on $370 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$370
Premium paid
Break-even
$108.70
+4.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
47.76 / -4.53 / 15.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 (-20%) | -$363 | -$369 | -$370 | -$370 |
| $88 (-15%) | -$341 | -$360 | -$369 | -$370 |
| $93 (-10%) | -$281 | -$326 | -$361 | -$370 |
| $98 (-5%) | -$156 | -$230 | -$313 | -$370 |
| $102 (-2%) | -$40 | -$128 | -$236 | -$370 |
| $104 (0%) ← spot | +$55 | -$38 | -$156 | -$370 |
| $106 (+2%) | +$166 | +$70 | -$51 | -$296 |
| $109 (+5%) | +$358 | +$265 | +$152 | +$15 |
| $115 (+11%) ← target | +$820 | +$747 | +$674 | +$630 |
| $119 (+15%) | +$1,184 | +$1,127 | +$1,079 | +$1,052 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$1,663 | +$1,622 | +$1,592 | +$1,570 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.