Target Price Playground
SBUX
$103.67
🟢
SBUX IV: 29.0% — LOW
(-46.1% vs 30d avg of 53.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $91 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.94 · Δ -0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $91 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$906 (183.4%) on $494 risked, vs $-1,267 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $10,367. Options give 15.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $91. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $91 by Dec 18
+$906
+183.4% on $494 risked
Max Profit
+$10,006
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$494
Premium paid
Break-even
$100.06
-3.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-52.08 / -4.28 / 15.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 (-20%) | +$1,657 | +$1,672 | +$1,691 | +$1,712 |
| $88 (-15%) | +$1,161 | +$1,162 | +$1,174 | +$1,194 |
| $91 (-12%) ← target | +$900 | +$888 | +$888 | +$906 |
| $93 (-10%) | +$703 | +$679 | +$664 | +$676 |
| $98 (-5%) | +$309 | +$255 | +$194 | +$157 |
| $102 (-2%) | +$114 | +$47 | -$41 | -$154 |
| $104 (0%) ← spot | +$2 | -$70 | -$168 | -$361 |
| $106 (+2%) | -$94 | -$169 | -$270 | -$494 |
| $109 (+5%) | -$213 | -$285 | -$377 | -$494 |
| $114 (+10%) | -$348 | -$404 | -$464 | -$494 |
| $119 (+15%) | -$424 | -$461 | -$488 | -$494 |
| $124 (+20%) | -$463 | -$483 | -$493 | -$494 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.