Target Price Playground
SBUX
$103.67
🟢
SBUX IV: 29.0% — LOW
(-46.1% vs 30d avg of 53.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $103.67 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $98 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.0 · Δ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $115 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$933 (8.8%) on $10,567 risked, vs +$1,133 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $10,367. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $115 by Dec 18
+$933
+8.8% on $10,567 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$767
Put floors you at $98
Break-even
$105.67
+1.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
73.1 / -3.58 / 12.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 (-20%) | -$792 | -$794 | -$785 | -$767 |
| $88 (-15%) | -$723 | -$751 | -$773 | -$767 |
| $93 (-10%) | -$578 | -$634 | -$704 | -$767 |
| $98 (-5%) | -$336 | -$406 | -$500 | -$718 |
| $102 (-2%) | -$145 | -$212 | -$298 | -$407 |
| $104 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$62 | -$136 | -$200 |
| $106 (+2%) | +$157 | +$102 | +$42 | +$7 |
| $109 (+5%) | +$413 | +$370 | +$331 | +$318 |
| $115 (+11%) ← target | +$968 | +$946 | +$934 | +$933 |
| $119 (+15%) | +$1,371 | +$1,360 | +$1,355 | +$1,355 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$1,879 | +$1,874 | +$1,873 | +$1,873 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.