Target Price Playground
SBUX
$103.67
🟢
SBUX IV: 29.0% — LOW
(-46.1% vs 30d avg of 53.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.7 · Δ 0.48
LONG PUT · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.94 · Δ -0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $120 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$636 (73.6%) on $864 risked, vs +$1,633 (15.8%) for 100 shares on $10,367. Options give 4.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $120 by Dec 18
+$636
+73.6% on $864 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$864
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$96.36
-7.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
16%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-4.32 / -8.81 / 30.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 (-20%) | +$1,294 | +$1,303 | +$1,321 | +$1,342 |
| $88 (-15%) | +$821 | +$802 | +$805 | +$824 |
| $93 (-10%) | +$422 | +$353 | +$303 | +$306 |
| $98 (-5%) | +$153 | +$25 | -$119 | -$213 |
| $102 (-2%) | +$74 | -$82 | -$276 | -$524 |
| $104 (0%) ← spot | +$58 | -$108 | -$324 | -$731 |
| $106 (+2%) | +$72 | -$99 | -$321 | -$790 |
| $109 (+5%) | +$146 | -$19 | -$225 | -$479 |
| $114 (+10%) | +$394 | +$260 | +$122 | +$40 |
| $120 (+16%) ← target | +$822 | +$734 | +$666 | +$636 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$1,199 | +$1,139 | +$1,098 | +$1,076 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.