Target Price Playground
SHOP
$164.44
🟡
SHOP IV: 61.0% — NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average — no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $165 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $16.0 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $150 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.3 · Δ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $145 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$830 (123.9%) on $670 risked, vs $-1,944 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $16,444. Options give 10.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $145 by Dec 18
+$830
+123.9% on $670 risked
Max Profit
+$830
If the stock ≤ $150 at expiry
Max Loss
−$670
Net debit
Break-even
$158.30
-3.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-14.45 / -0.7 / 1.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | +$489 | +$547 | +$655 | +$830 |
| $140 (-15%) | +$381 | +$424 | +$517 | +$830 |
| $145 (-12%) ← target | +$308 | +$338 | +$407 | +$830 |
| $148 (-10%) | +$266 | +$287 | +$339 | +$830 |
| $156 (-5%) | +$149 | +$145 | +$141 | +$208 |
| $161 (-2%) | +$81 | +$61 | +$23 | -$285 |
| $164 (0%) ← spot | +$36 | +$6 | -$53 | -$614 |
| $168 (+2%) | -$8 | -$47 | -$126 | -$670 |
| $173 (+5%) | -$71 | -$123 | -$226 | -$670 |
| $181 (+10%) | -$168 | -$237 | -$366 | -$670 |
| $189 (+15%) | -$255 | -$334 | -$472 | -$670 |
| $197 (+20%) | -$330 | -$414 | -$547 | -$670 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.