Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
SHOP
$164.44
🟡
SHOP IV: 61.0% — NORMAL (-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average — no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection If price hits $175 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $150 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.3 · Δ -0.3
P&L at Expiry Now $164 Target $175 $115 $164 $214
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If SHOP hits $175 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$930 (6.6%) on $-930 credit (max loss $14,070), vs +$1,056 (6.4%) for 100 shares on $16,444. Options give 1.0× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if SHOP hits $175 by Dec 18
+$930
+6.6% on $14,070 max loss
Max Profit
+$930
If the stock ≥ $150 at expiry
Max Loss
−$14,070
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$140.70
-14.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
30.37 / 9.75 / -27.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

SHOP Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$132 (-20%) -$1,564 -$1,359 -$1,115 -$915
$140 (-15%) -$1,085 -$843 -$531 -$93
$148 (-10%) -$676 -$414 -$62 +$730
$156 (-5%) -$336 -$67 +$288 +$930
$161 (-2%) -$162 +$104 +$447 +$930
$164 (0%) ← spot -$58 +$204 +$535 +$930
$168 (+2%) +$38 +$293 +$608 +$930
$173 (+5%) +$167 +$410 +$697 +$930
$175 (+6%) ← target +$222 +$459 +$731 +$930
$181 (+10%) +$346 +$564 +$798 +$930
$189 (+15%) +$486 +$676 +$859 +$930
$197 (+20%) +$595 +$756 +$893 +$930
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.