Target Price Playground
SHOP
$164.44
🟡
SHOP IV: 61.0% — NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average — no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $165 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $17.65 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.4 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $155 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$869 (139.0%) on $625 risked, vs $-944 (-5.7%) for 100 shares on $16,444. Options give 24.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $155 by Dec 18
+$869
+139.0% on $625 risked
Max Profit
+$853
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$581
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$173.19
+5.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-8.89 / 1.42 / 6.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | +$328 | +$377 | +$440 | +$419 |
| $140 (-15%) | +$299 | +$357 | +$451 | +$537 |
| $148 (-10%) | +$258 | +$318 | +$428 | +$731 |
| $155 (-6%) ← target | +$215 | +$271 | +$377 | +$970 |
| $161 (-2%) | +$171 | +$219 | +$311 | +$625 |
| $164 (0%) ← spot | +$146 | +$189 | +$269 | +$463 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$120 | +$157 | +$223 | +$318 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$80 | +$106 | +$150 | +$127 |
| $181 (+10%) | +$11 | +$19 | +$21 | -$122 |
| $189 (+15%) | -$59 | -$69 | -$104 | -$298 |
| $197 (+20%) | -$126 | -$152 | -$217 | -$419 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.