Target Price Playground
SHOP
$164.44
🟡
SHOP IV: 61.0% — NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average — no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $165 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.23 · Δ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $185 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$277 (16.1%) on $1,723 risked, vs +$2,056 (12.5%) for 100 shares on $16,444. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $185 by Dec 18
+$277
+16.1% on $1,723 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$1,723
Premium paid
Break-even
$182.23
+10.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
55.73 / -12.43 / 28.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | -$1,269 | -$1,465 | -$1,649 | -$1,723 |
| $140 (-15%) | -$1,035 | -$1,281 | -$1,550 | -$1,723 |
| $148 (-10%) | -$735 | -$1,025 | -$1,373 | -$1,723 |
| $156 (-5%) | -$370 | -$692 | -$1,099 | -$1,723 |
| $161 (-2%) | -$119 | -$454 | -$884 | -$1,723 |
| $164 (0%) ← spot | +$61 | -$279 | -$718 | -$1,723 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$250 | -$93 | -$535 | -$1,450 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$551 | +$207 | -$231 | -$957 |
| $181 (+10%) | +$1,097 | +$761 | +$349 | -$135 |
| $185 (+13%) ← target | +$1,390 | +$1,062 | +$669 | +$277 |
| $189 (+15%) | +$1,693 | +$1,375 | +$1,006 | +$688 |
| $197 (+20%) | +$2,331 | +$2,037 | +$1,720 | +$1,510 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.