Target Price Playground
SHOP
$164.44
🟡
SHOP IV: 61.0% — NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average — no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $165 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $16.0 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $145 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$400 (25.0%) on $1,600 risked, vs $-1,944 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $16,444. Options give 2.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $145 by Dec 18
+$400
+25.0% on $1,600 risked
Max Profit
+$14,900
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$1,600
Premium paid
Break-even
$149.00
-9.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-44.82 / -10.45 / 28.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | +$2,053 | +$1,906 | +$1,770 | +$1,745 |
| $140 (-15%) | +$1,465 | +$1,267 | +$1,047 | +$923 |
| $145 (-12%) ← target | +$1,125 | +$898 | +$626 | +$400 |
| $148 (-10%) | +$942 | +$700 | +$401 | +$100 |
| $156 (-5%) | +$486 | +$212 | -$147 | -$722 |
| $161 (-2%) | +$243 | -$43 | -$424 | -$1,215 |
| $164 (0%) ← spot | +$94 | -$198 | -$588 | -$1,544 |
| $168 (+2%) | -$46 | -$341 | -$734 | -$1,600 |
| $173 (+5%) | -$237 | -$533 | -$923 | -$1,600 |
| $181 (+10%) | -$513 | -$801 | -$1,165 | -$1,600 |
| $189 (+15%) | -$741 | -$1,010 | -$1,331 | -$1,600 |
| $197 (+20%) | -$925 | -$1,171 | -$1,439 | -$1,600 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.