Target Price Playground
SHOP
$164.44
๐ก
SHOP IV: 61.0% โ NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
72d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $164.44 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $185 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$2,056 (12.5%) on $16,444 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $185 by Dec 18
+$2,056
+12.5% on $16,444 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$16,444
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$164.44
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Nov 6 | Dec 6 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | -$3,289 | -$3,289 | -$3,289 |
| $140 (-15%) | -$2,467 | -$2,467 | -$2,467 |
| $148 (-10%) | -$1,644 | -$1,644 | -$1,644 |
| $156 (-5%) | -$822 | -$822 | -$822 |
| $161 (-2%) | -$329 | -$329 | -$329 |
| $164 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$329 | +$329 | +$329 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$822 | +$822 | +$822 |
| $181 (+10%) | +$1,644 | +$1,644 | +$1,644 |
| $185 (+13%) โ target | +$2,056 | +$2,056 | +$2,056 |
| $189 (+15%) | +$2,467 | +$2,467 | +$2,467 |
| $197 (+20%) | +$3,289 | +$3,289 | +$3,289 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.