Target Price Playground
SHOP
$164.44
🟡
SHOP IV: 61.0% — NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average — no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $164.44 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.4 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $180 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$416 (2.4%) on $17,584 risked, vs +$1,556 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $16,444. Options give 0.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $180 by Dec 18
+$416
+2.4% on $17,584 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$2,084
Put floors you at $155
Break-even
$175.84
+6.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
64.99 / -9.9 / 27.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | -$1,566 | -$1,754 | -$1,963 | -$2,084 |
| $140 (-15%) | -$1,263 | -$1,493 | -$1,781 | -$2,084 |
| $148 (-10%) | -$888 | -$1,149 | -$1,493 | -$2,084 |
| $156 (-5%) | -$446 | -$722 | -$1,091 | -$1,962 |
| $161 (-2%) | -$150 | -$428 | -$796 | -$1,469 |
| $164 (0%) ← spot | +$60 | -$217 | -$579 | -$1,140 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$278 | +$5 | -$346 | -$811 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$622 | +$357 | +$28 | -$318 |
| $180 (+9%) ← target | +$1,167 | +$920 | +$633 | +$416 |
| $189 (+15%) | +$1,890 | +$1,671 | +$1,443 | +$1,327 |
| $197 (+20%) | +$2,580 | +$2,390 | +$2,213 | +$2,149 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.