Target Price Playground
SHOP
$164.44
🟡
SHOP IV: 61.0% — NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average — no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $165 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.23 · Δ 0.56
LONG PUT · $165 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $16.0 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $190 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns $-823 (-24.8%) on $3,323 risked, vs +$2,556 (15.5%) for 100 shares on $16,444. Options give 1.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $190 by Dec 18
$-823
-24.8% on $3,323 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$3,323
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$131.77
-19.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
10.91 / -22.88 / 57.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | +$784 | +$441 | +$120 | +$22 |
| $140 (-15%) | +$430 | -$14 | -$503 | -$800 |
| $148 (-10%) | +$207 | -$325 | -$972 | -$1,623 |
| $156 (-5%) | +$116 | -$479 | -$1,246 | -$2,445 |
| $161 (-2%) | +$124 | -$497 | -$1,308 | -$2,938 |
| $164 (0%) ← spot | +$154 | -$477 | -$1,306 | -$3,267 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$204 | -$434 | -$1,270 | -$3,050 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$314 | -$326 | -$1,154 | -$2,557 |
| $181 (+10%) | +$584 | -$40 | -$816 | -$1,735 |
| $190 (+16%) ← target | +$998 | +$414 | -$264 | -$823 |
| $197 (+20%) | +$1,406 | +$866 | +$281 | -$90 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.