Target Price Playground
SHOP
$164.44
🟡
SHOP IV: 61.0% — NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average — no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $164.44 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $180 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.49 · Δ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $180 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$2,705 (17.7%) on $15,295 risked, vs +$1,556 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $16,444. Options give 1.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $180 by Dec 18
+$2,705
+17.7% on $15,295 risked
Max Profit
+$2,705
If the stock ≥ $180 at expiry
Max Loss
−$15,295
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$152.95
-6.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
58.14 / 12.0 / -30.45
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | -$2,395 | -$2,258 | -$2,159 | -$2,140 |
| $140 (-15%) | -$1,726 | -$1,537 | -$1,371 | -$1,318 |
| $148 (-10%) | -$1,109 | -$868 | -$621 | -$495 |
| $156 (-5%) | -$551 | -$261 | +$70 | +$327 |
| $161 (-2%) | -$245 | +$70 | +$447 | +$820 |
| $164 (0%) ← spot | -$53 | +$276 | +$681 | +$1,149 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$129 | +$471 | +$899 | +$1,478 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$384 | +$741 | +$1,198 | +$1,971 |
| $180 (+9%) ← target | +$725 | +$1,097 | +$1,576 | +$2,705 |
| $189 (+15%) | +$1,087 | +$1,462 | +$1,939 | +$2,705 |
| $197 (+20%) | +$1,361 | +$1,727 | +$2,177 | +$2,705 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.