Target Price Playground
SHOP
$122.54
๐ข
SHOP IV: 60.6% โ LOW
(-21.4% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $122.54 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $130 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.4 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $130 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$1,886 (17.0%) on $11,114 risked, vs +$746 (6.1%) for 100 shares on $12,254. Options give 2.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $130 by Sep 18
+$1,886
+17.0% on $11,114 risked
Max Profit
+$1,886
If the stock โฅ $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$11,114
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$111.14
-9.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.95 / 10.24 / -21.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 (-20%) | -$1,576 | -$1,448 | -$1,341 | -$1,311 |
| $104 (-15%) | -$1,105 | -$936 | -$771 | -$698 |
| $110 (-10%) | -$676 | -$470 | -$242 | -$85 |
| $116 (-5%) | -$292 | -$54 | +$232 | +$527 |
| $120 (-2%) | -$83 | +$170 | +$486 | +$895 |
| $123 (0%) โ spot | +$48 | +$309 | +$640 | +$1,140 |
| $125 (+2%) | +$171 | +$439 | +$783 | +$1,385 |
| $129 (+5%) | +$343 | +$619 | +$976 | +$1,753 |
| $130 (+6%) โ target | +$402 | +$679 | +$1,039 | +$1,886 |
| $135 (+10%) | +$597 | +$878 | +$1,238 | +$1,886 |
| $141 (+15%) | +$812 | +$1,090 | +$1,435 | +$1,886 |
| $147 (+20%) | +$994 | +$1,260 | +$1,578 | +$1,886 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.