STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)
$850.00
-0.24 (-0.03%)
▼
5d:
-12.68%
30d:
-6.94%
90d:
+4.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $812.76 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STX is down 12.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STX is down 12.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1386.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$860.91
1.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $850.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $793.45 to $907.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.9) compared to its historical average (26.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $786.00, while resistance sits at $1013.99.
Market Sentiment: STX scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1115.87 (+12.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $786.00, while resistance sits at $1013.99.
Market Sentiment: STX scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1115.87 (+12.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$793.45 -
$907.22
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1115.87)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 9.4% growth expectation is conservative given 149% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$793.45 -
$907.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$786.00
Resistance Level
$1013.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.93
Wall Street Target
$1115.87
(+12.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
148.8%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.4% premium
PE vs Historical
34.9 vs 26.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1088.30
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$1190.60
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$1302.52
(+31%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$995.63
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.9, Growth: 91.3%)
$3357.42
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 91.3%)
$1932.95
(+94%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 91.3%)
$1643.00
(+65%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 27.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $31.19
Bull Case
$1026.37
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$850.00
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$650.25
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 4:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2026-04-01
William D Mosley
SELL
24584 shares
2026-03-19
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-02
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