STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)
$856.13
4.45 (0.52%)
▲
5d:
+0.52%
30d:
-6.45%
90d:
+27.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1386.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$860.91
0.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $856.13, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $798.18 to $966.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 30.1) compared to its historical average (26.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $698.99, while resistance sits at $936.49.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1106.09 (+29.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $698.99, while resistance sits at $936.49.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1106.09 (+29.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$798.18 -
$966.01
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.2% below Wall St target ($1106.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$798.18 -
$966.01
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$698.99
Resistance Level
$936.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.06
Wall Street Target
$1106.09
(+29.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
149.1%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
30.1 vs 26.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$892.94
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$931.34
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$971.39
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$856.31
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.1, Growth: 91.3%)
$2889.44
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 91.3%)
$1992.54
(+133%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 91.3%)
$1693.66
(+98%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 31.15 | Forward EPS (Implied): $27.48
Bull Case
$1033.78
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 32.7
Base Case
$856.13
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 31.2
Bear Case
$654.94
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 28.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2026-04-01
William D Mosley
SELL
24584 shares
2026-03-19
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-02
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