Is STX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, STX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of STX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for STX to be between $796.53 and $899.14. The current price is $973.44.

What is the analyst price target for STX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for STX is $1115.87. This implies a potential upside of 21.1% from current levels.

STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)

COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICES

$973.44

52.07 (5.65%) ▲

5d: +19.77%

30d: +30.58%

90d: +20.96%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your STX Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 28, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $812.76 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1386.50

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$860.91

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $973.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $796.53 to $899.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.4) compared to its historical average (26.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $990.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: STX scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1115.87 (+21.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $796.53 - $899.14

Company Quality Score 41/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 28.6%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.3% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.7%)
BULLISH: Trading 21.1% below Wall St target ($1115.87)
NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.7% growth expectation is conservative given 149% recent growth
WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $796.53 - $899.14

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $761.80

Resistance Level $990.61

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 32.35

Wall Street Target $1115.87 (+21.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 48.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 148.8%

Profit Margin 26.1%

Valuation Premium vs History +6.7% premium

PE vs Historical 32.4 vs 26.6 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +6.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $983.10 (+7%)

2-Year Target $1048.97 (+14%)

3-Year Target $1119.25 (+22%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 32→27) PE COMPRESSION $920.26 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 32.4, Growth: 91.3%) $3109.62 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 91.3%) $1944.48 (+111%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 91.3%) $1652.81 (+79%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 22.42 | Forward EPS (Implied): $43.42

Bull Case $1175.43 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.5

Base Case $973.44 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.4

Bear Case $744.68 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

William D Mosley SELL 20000 shares 2026-04-01

William D Mosley SELL 24584 shares 2026-03-19

William D Mosley SELL 20000 shares 2026-03-02

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