Is STX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, STX is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: STX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of STX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for STX to be between $805.29 and $900.19. The current price is $830.17.

What is the analyst price target for STX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for STX is $1125.00. This implies a potential upside of 35.5% from current levels.

STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)

COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICES

$830.17

-32.16 (-3.73%) ▼

5d: +3.95%

30d: -5.47%

90d: -4.37%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your STX Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 27, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $849.28 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1386.50

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$860.91

3.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $830.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $805.29 to $900.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.1) is in line with its historical norms (26.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $763.52, while resistance sits at $925.44. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1125.00 (+35.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $805.29 - $900.19

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 68.6%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
BULLISH: Trading 35.5% below Wall St target ($1125.00)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (41/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $805.29 - $900.19

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $763.52

Resistance Level $925.44

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 29.15

Wall Street Target $1125.00 (+35.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 48.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 148.8%

Profit Margin 26.1%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.8% premium

PE vs Historical 29.2 vs 26.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $853.41 (+3%)

2-Year Target $877.31 (+6%)

3-Year Target $901.88 (+9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 29→27) PE COMPRESSION $832.27 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 29.1, Growth: 91.3%) $2801.82 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 91.3%) $1938.71 (+134%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 91.3%) $1647.91 (+99%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 24.75 | Forward EPS (Implied): $33.54

Bull Case $1002.43 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 26.0

Base Case $830.17 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.8

Bear Case $635.08 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 22.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:02 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

William D Mosley SELL 20000 shares 2026-04-01

William D Mosley SELL 24584 shares 2026-03-19

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