Is STX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, STX is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: STX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of STX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for STX to be between $807.22 and $906.02. The current price is $848.99.

What is the analyst price target for STX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for STX is $1125.00. This implies a potential upside of 32.5% from current levels.

STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)

COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICES

$848.99

-96.58 (-10.21%) ▼

5d: -7.4%

30d: +5.0%

90d: -2.22%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your STX Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 27, 2026 23d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 2, 2026 at $848.99 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026

Strength: 6.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1386.50

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$860.91

1.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $848.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $807.22 to $906.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.8) is in line with its historical norms (27.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $791.75, while resistance sits at $946.36. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.2% recently.

Market Sentiment: STX scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1125.00 (+32.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $807.22 - $906.02

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 46.2%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-10.2%)
BULLISH: Trading 32.5% below Wall St target ($1125.00)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.4%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $807.22 - $906.02

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $791.75

Resistance Level $946.36

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 29.81

Wall Street Target $1125.00 (+32.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 48.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 148.8%

Profit Margin 26.1%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.2% premium

PE vs Historical 29.8 vs 27.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $876.16 (+3%)

2-Year Target $904.19 (+7%)

3-Year Target $933.13 (+10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 30→27) PE COMPRESSION $848.29 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 29.8, Growth: 91.3%) $2865.34 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 91.3%) $1960.82 (+131%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 91.3%) $1666.70 (+96%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 25.71 | Forward EPS (Implied): $33.03

Bull Case $1025.16 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 27.0

Base Case $848.99 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 25.7

Bear Case $649.48 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 03, 2026 2:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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