Target Price Playground
TMUS
$156.44
🟢
TMUS IV: 34.1% — LOW
(-38.1% vs 30d avg of 55.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.7 · Δ -0.42
SHORT PUT · $145 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.77 · Δ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $140 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$607 (154.5%) on $393 risked, vs $-1,644 (-10.5%) for 100 shares on $15,644. Options give 14.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $140 by Dec 18
+$607
+154.5% on $393 risked
Max Profit
+$607
If the stock ≤ $145 at expiry
Max Loss
−$393
Net debit
Break-even
$151.07
-3.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-16.13 / -1.12 / 3.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | +$523 | +$560 | +$596 | +$607 |
| $133 (-15%) | +$431 | +$478 | +$549 | +$607 |
| $140 (-11%) ← target | +$312 | +$350 | +$424 | +$607 |
| $149 (-5%) | +$139 | +$145 | +$157 | +$245 |
| $153 (-2%) | +$44 | +$29 | -$3 | -$224 |
| $156 (0%) ← spot | -$17 | -$44 | -$100 | -$393 |
| $160 (+2%) | -$73 | -$110 | -$182 | -$393 |
| $164 (+5%) | -$148 | -$194 | -$275 | -$393 |
| $172 (+10%) | -$246 | -$293 | -$357 | -$393 |
| $180 (+15%) | -$311 | -$349 | -$384 | -$393 |
| $188 (+20%) | -$350 | -$375 | -$391 | -$393 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.