Target Price Playground
TMUS
$156.44
🟢
TMUS IV: 34.1% — LOW
(-38.1% vs 30d avg of 55.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $175 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.3 · Δ 0.58
SHORT CALL · $170 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.21 · Δ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $175 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$891 (146.3%) on $609 risked, vs +$1,856 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $15,644. Options give 12.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $175 by Dec 18
+$891
+146.3% on $609 risked
Max Profit
+$891
If the stock ≥ $170 at expiry
Max Loss
−$609
Net debit
Break-even
$161.09
+2.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
31.73 / -1.67 / 1.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | -$576 | -$598 | -$608 | -$609 |
| $133 (-15%) | -$519 | -$563 | -$601 | -$609 |
| $141 (-10%) | -$411 | -$475 | -$559 | -$609 |
| $149 (-5%) | -$247 | -$309 | -$419 | -$609 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$128 | -$174 | -$268 | -$609 |
| $156 (0%) ← spot | -$42 | -$74 | -$141 | -$465 |
| $160 (+2%) | +$45 | +$32 | -$0 | -$152 |
| $164 (+5%) | +$177 | +$191 | +$218 | +$317 |
| $172 (+10%) | +$381 | +$435 | +$537 | +$891 |
| $175 (+12%) ← target | +$449 | +$513 | +$627 | +$891 |
| $180 (+15%) | +$551 | +$623 | +$741 | +$891 |
| $188 (+20%) | +$677 | +$748 | +$838 | +$891 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.