Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
TMUS
$156.44
🟢
TMUS IV: 34.1% — LOW (-38.1% vs 30d avg of 55.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $165 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $145 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.77 · Δ -0.26
P&L at Expiry Now $156 Target $165 $110 $156 $203
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If TMUS hits $165 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$377 (2.7%) on $-377 credit (max loss $14,123), vs +$856 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $15,644. Options give 0.5× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if TMUS hits $165 by Dec 18
+$377
+2.7% on $14,123 max loss
Max Profit
+$377
If the stock ≥ $145 at expiry
Max Loss
−$14,123
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$141.23
-9.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
26.22 / 7.76 / -18.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

TMUS Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$125 (-20%) -$1,639 -$1,606 -$1,589 -$1,608
$133 (-15%) -$1,024 -$945 -$861 -$826
$141 (-10%) -$529 -$416 -$268 -$43
$149 (-5%) -$167 -$46 +$113 +$377
$153 (-2%) -$9 +$103 +$241 +$377
$156 (0%) ← spot +$74 +$177 +$294 +$377
$160 (+2%) +$142 +$233 +$329 +$377
$165 (+5%) ← target +$230 +$300 +$360 +$377
$172 (+10%) +$301 +$345 +$373 +$377
$180 (+15%) +$342 +$366 +$376 +$377
$188 (+20%) +$362 +$374 +$377 +$377
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.