Target Price Playground
TMUS
$156.44
🟢
TMUS IV: 34.1% — LOW
(-38.1% vs 30d avg of 55.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $155 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $8.5 · Δ -0.42
SHORT PUT · $150 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.61 · Δ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $150 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$583 (201.9%) on $289 risked, vs $-644 (-4.1%) for 100 shares on $15,644. Options give 49.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $150 by Dec 18
+$583
+201.9% on $289 risked
Max Profit
+$559
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$287
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$163.80
+4.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-8.49 / 2.05 / 6.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | +$194 | +$195 | +$185 | +$165 |
| $133 (-15%) | +$206 | +$222 | +$229 | +$195 |
| $141 (-10%) | +$198 | +$230 | +$275 | +$290 |
| $150 (-4%) ← target | +$153 | +$189 | +$253 | +$554 |
| $153 (-2%) | +$128 | +$160 | +$216 | +$370 |
| $156 (0%) ← spot | +$101 | +$126 | +$169 | +$223 |
| $160 (+2%) | +$71 | +$89 | +$114 | +$101 |
| $164 (+5%) | +$23 | +$28 | +$27 | -$39 |
| $172 (+10%) | -$56 | -$69 | -$102 | -$181 |
| $180 (+15%) | -$126 | -$150 | -$191 | -$248 |
| $188 (+20%) | -$181 | -$207 | -$242 | -$275 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.