Target Price Playground
TMUS
$156.44
🟢
TMUS IV: 34.1% — LOW
(-38.1% vs 30d avg of 55.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $175 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.3 · Δ 0.58
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $175 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$1,070 (115.1%) on $930 risked, vs +$1,856 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $15,644. Options give 9.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $175 by Dec 18
+$1,070
+115.1% on $930 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$930
Premium paid
Break-even
$164.30
+5.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
57.82 / -7.53 / 22.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | -$891 | -$918 | -$929 | -$930 |
| $133 (-15%) | -$817 | -$879 | -$922 | -$930 |
| $141 (-10%) | -$664 | -$771 | -$878 | -$930 |
| $149 (-5%) | -$401 | -$546 | -$723 | -$930 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$185 | -$342 | -$542 | -$930 |
| $156 (0%) ← spot | -$15 | -$175 | -$379 | -$786 |
| $160 (+2%) | +$173 | +$15 | -$183 | -$473 |
| $164 (+5%) | +$489 | +$340 | +$165 | -$4 |
| $172 (+10%) | +$1,092 | +$970 | +$849 | +$778 |
| $175 (+12%) ← target | +$1,338 | +$1,227 | +$1,124 | +$1,070 |
| $180 (+15%) | +$1,769 | +$1,677 | +$1,601 | +$1,561 |
| $188 (+20%) | +$2,492 | +$2,425 | +$2,375 | +$2,343 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.