Target Price Playground
TMUS
$156.44
🟢
TMUS IV: 34.1% — LOW
(-38.1% vs 30d avg of 55.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.7 · Δ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $140 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$730 (94.8%) on $770 risked, vs $-1,644 (-10.5%) for 100 shares on $15,644. Options give 9.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $140 by Dec 18
+$730
+94.8% on $770 risked
Max Profit
+$14,730
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$770
Premium paid
Break-even
$147.30
-5.84% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-42.34 / -8.88 / 22.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | +$2,162 | +$2,166 | +$2,185 | +$2,215 |
| $133 (-15%) | +$1,454 | +$1,423 | +$1,410 | +$1,433 |
| $140 (-11%) ← target | +$885 | +$813 | +$744 | +$730 |
| $149 (-5%) | +$305 | +$191 | +$44 | -$132 |
| $153 (-2%) | +$53 | -$74 | -$244 | -$601 |
| $156 (0%) ← spot | -$91 | -$220 | -$394 | -$770 |
| $160 (+2%) | -$215 | -$343 | -$511 | -$770 |
| $164 (+5%) | -$368 | -$487 | -$632 | -$770 |
| $172 (+10%) | -$547 | -$639 | -$730 | -$770 |
| $180 (+15%) | -$654 | -$715 | -$761 | -$770 |
| $188 (+20%) | -$713 | -$749 | -$768 | -$770 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.