Target Price Playground
TMUS
$156.44
🟢
TMUS IV: 34.1% — LOW
(-38.1% vs 30d avg of 55.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $156.44 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $150 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.61 · Δ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $170 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$795 (4.9%) on $16,205 risked, vs +$1,356 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $15,644. Options give 0.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $170 by Dec 18
+$795
+4.9% on $16,205 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$1,205
Put floors you at $150
Break-even
$162.05
+3.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
66.09 / -8.76 / 22.11
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | -$1,225 | -$1,238 | -$1,232 | -$1,205 |
| $133 (-15%) | -$1,112 | -$1,166 | -$1,211 | -$1,205 |
| $141 (-10%) | -$897 | -$996 | -$1,113 | -$1,205 |
| $149 (-5%) | -$559 | -$682 | -$848 | -$1,205 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$295 | -$420 | -$585 | -$874 |
| $156 (0%) ← spot | -$95 | -$215 | -$369 | -$561 |
| $160 (+2%) | +$124 | +$11 | -$126 | -$248 |
| $164 (+5%) | +$480 | +$383 | +$279 | +$221 |
| $170 (+9%) ← target | +$956 | +$881 | +$815 | +$795 |
| $172 (+10%) | +$1,138 | +$1,071 | +$1,017 | +$1,003 |
| $180 (+15%) | +$1,852 | +$1,812 | +$1,789 | +$1,786 |
| $188 (+20%) | +$2,598 | +$2,577 | +$2,568 | +$2,568 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.