Target Price Playground
TMUS
$156.44
🟢
TMUS IV: 34.1% — LOW
(-38.1% vs 30d avg of 55.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.3 · Δ 0.58
LONG PUT · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.7 · Δ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $180 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$800 (47.1%) on $1,700 risked, vs +$2,356 (15.1%) for 100 shares on $15,644. Options give 3.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $180 by Dec 18
+$800
+47.1% on $1,700 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$1,700
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$172.00
+9.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
15.47 / -16.41 / 45.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | +$1,271 | +$1,248 | +$1,256 | +$1,285 |
| $133 (-15%) | +$637 | +$544 | +$488 | +$503 |
| $141 (-10%) | +$161 | -$22 | -$206 | -$280 |
| $149 (-5%) | -$96 | -$356 | -$679 | -$1,062 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$132 | -$416 | -$787 | -$1,531 |
| $156 (0%) ← spot | -$106 | -$396 | -$773 | -$1,556 |
| $160 (+2%) | -$42 | -$328 | -$694 | -$1,243 |
| $164 (+5%) | +$121 | -$147 | -$467 | -$774 |
| $172 (+10%) | +$545 | +$332 | +$119 | +$8 |
| $180 (+15%) ← target | +$1,122 | +$970 | +$849 | +$800 |
| $188 (+20%) | +$1,779 | +$1,676 | +$1,607 | +$1,573 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.