Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.22
๐ข
TMUS IV: 28.7% โ LOW
(-52.0% vs 30d avg of 59.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.0 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $165 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.7 ยท ฮ -0.2
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $160 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$970 (183.0%) on $530 risked, vs $-2,122 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $18,122. Options give 15.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $160 by Oct 16
+$970
+183.0% on $530 risked
Max Profit
+$970
If the stock โค $165 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$530
Net debit
Break-even
$174.70
-3.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-27.88 / -1.69 / 10.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | +$847 | +$900 | +$953 | +$970 |
| $154 (-15%) | +$699 | +$768 | +$874 | +$970 |
| $160 (-12%) โ target | +$561 | +$623 | +$737 | +$970 |
| $163 (-10%) | +$480 | +$531 | +$632 | +$970 |
| $172 (-5%) | +$223 | +$227 | +$232 | +$254 |
| $178 (-2%) | +$72 | +$45 | -$15 | -$290 |
| $181 (0%) โ spot | -$22 | -$66 | -$156 | -$530 |
| $185 (+2%) | -$108 | -$164 | -$272 | -$530 |
| $190 (+5%) | -$220 | -$285 | -$396 | -$530 |
| $199 (+10%) | -$358 | -$418 | -$494 | -$530 |
| $208 (+15%) | -$443 | -$486 | -$523 | -$530 |
| $217 (+20%) | -$489 | -$514 | -$529 | -$530 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.