Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.22
๐ข
TMUS IV: 28.7% โ LOW
(-52.0% vs 30d avg of 59.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $180 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.2 ยท ฮ 0.52
SHORT CALL ยท $195 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.57 ยท ฮ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $205 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$937 (166.4%) on $563 risked, vs +$2,378 (13.1%) for 100 shares on $18,122. Options give 12.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $205 by Oct 16
+$937
+166.4% on $563 risked
Max Profit
+$937
If the stock โฅ $195 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$563
Net debit
Break-even
$185.63
+2.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
24.68 / -1.96 / 2.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$539 | -$555 | -$563 | -$563 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$486 | -$526 | -$558 | -$563 |
| $163 (-10%) | -$379 | -$440 | -$522 | -$563 |
| $172 (-5%) | -$206 | -$268 | -$382 | -$563 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$76 | -$123 | -$221 | -$563 |
| $181 (0%) โ spot | +$17 | -$14 | -$83 | -$441 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$112 | +$100 | +$71 | -$79 |
| $190 (+5%) | +$255 | +$272 | +$307 | +$465 |
| $199 (+10%) | +$472 | +$527 | +$636 | +$937 |
| $205 (+13%) โ target | +$586 | +$653 | +$770 | +$937 |
| $208 (+15%) | +$644 | +$714 | +$825 | +$937 |
| $217 (+20%) | +$765 | +$827 | +$903 | +$937 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.