Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.22
๐ข
TMUS IV: 28.7% โ LOW
(-52.0% vs 30d avg of 59.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.0 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $160 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$1,200 (150.0%) on $800 risked, vs $-2,122 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $18,122. Options give 12.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $160 by Oct 16
+$1,200
+150.0% on $800 risked
Max Profit
+$17,200
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$800
Premium paid
Break-even
$172.00
-5.09% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-48.02 / -6.66 / 27.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | +$2,607 | +$2,626 | +$2,660 | +$2,702 |
| $154 (-15%) | +$1,769 | +$1,754 | +$1,759 | +$1,796 |
| $160 (-12%) โ target | +$1,263 | +$1,216 | +$1,180 | +$1,200 |
| $163 (-10%) | +$1,019 | +$954 | +$891 | +$890 |
| $172 (-5%) | +$398 | +$288 | +$142 | -$16 |
| $178 (-2%) | +$99 | -$27 | -$204 | -$560 |
| $181 (0%) โ spot | -$69 | -$199 | -$383 | -$800 |
| $185 (+2%) | -$213 | -$342 | -$520 | -$800 |
| $190 (+5%) | -$388 | -$506 | -$658 | -$800 |
| $199 (+10%) | -$585 | -$673 | -$763 | -$800 |
| $208 (+15%) | -$696 | -$751 | -$793 | -$800 |
| $217 (+20%) | -$753 | -$783 | -$799 | -$800 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.