Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.22
๐ข
TMUS IV: 28.7% โ LOW
(-52.0% vs 30d avg of 59.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $181.22 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.8 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $200 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$1,498 (8.1%) on $18,502 risked, vs +$1,878 (10.4%) for 100 shares on $18,122. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $200 by Oct 16
+$1,498
+8.1% on $18,502 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,502
Put floors you at $170
Break-even
$185.02
+2.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
72.25 / -5.48 / 23.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$1,533 | -$1,545 | -$1,538 | -$1,502 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$1,380 | -$1,442 | -$1,501 | -$1,502 |
| $163 (-10%) | -$1,091 | -$1,196 | -$1,339 | -$1,502 |
| $172 (-5%) | -$638 | -$761 | -$934 | -$1,286 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$291 | -$407 | -$562 | -$742 |
| $181 (0%) โ spot | -$31 | -$139 | -$272 | -$380 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$248 | +$152 | +$44 | -$18 |
| $190 (+5%) | +$698 | +$623 | +$550 | +$526 |
| $200 (+10%) โ target | +$1,572 | +$1,529 | +$1,501 | +$1,498 |
| $208 (+15%) | +$2,371 | +$2,349 | +$2,339 | +$2,338 |
| $217 (+20%) | +$3,257 | +$3,247 | +$3,244 | +$3,244 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.