Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.22
๐ข
TMUS IV: 28.7% โ LOW
(-52.0% vs 30d avg of 59.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $180 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.2 ยท ฮ 0.52
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.0 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $210 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns +$1,280 (74.4%) on $1,720 risked, vs +$2,878 (15.9%) for 100 shares on $18,122. Options give 4.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $210 by Oct 16
+$1,280
+74.4% on $1,720 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,720
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$197.20
+8.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
18%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
4.27 / -15.3 / 55.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | +$1,716 | +$1,714 | +$1,740 | +$1,782 |
| $154 (-15%) | +$946 | +$876 | +$844 | +$876 |
| $163 (-10%) | +$351 | +$182 | +$15 | -$30 |
| $172 (-5%) | +$16 | -$244 | -$579 | -$936 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$39 | -$330 | -$727 | -$1,480 |
| $181 (0%) โ spot | -$13 | -$312 | -$721 | -$1,598 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$61 | -$235 | -$633 | -$1,236 |
| $190 (+5%) | +$255 | -$20 | -$366 | -$692 |
| $199 (+10%) | +$767 | +$552 | +$330 | +$214 |
| $210 (+16%) โ target | +$1,586 | +$1,445 | +$1,333 | +$1,280 |
| $217 (+20%) | +$2,244 | +$2,144 | +$2,070 | +$2,026 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.