Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.22
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.3% โ LOW
(-51.1% vs 30d avg of 59.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $181.22 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $195 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.57 ยท ฮ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $195 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$1,735 (9.8%) on $17,765 risked, vs +$1,378 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $18,122. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $195 by Oct 16
+$1,735
+9.8% on $17,765 risked
Max Profit
+$1,735
If the stock โฅ $195 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$17,765
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$177.65
-1.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
72.38 / 6.69 / -25.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$3,272 | -$3,268 | -$3,267 | -$3,267 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$2,381 | -$2,366 | -$2,361 | -$2,361 |
| $163 (-10%) | -$1,523 | -$1,481 | -$1,457 | -$1,455 |
| $172 (-5%) | -$730 | -$642 | -$568 | -$549 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$301 | -$182 | -$60 | -$5 |
| $181 (0%) โ spot | -$40 | +$99 | +$256 | +$357 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$200 | +$356 | +$546 | +$719 |
| $190 (+5%) | +$518 | +$692 | +$921 | +$1,263 |
| $195 (+8%) โ target | +$751 | +$933 | +$1,177 | +$1,735 |
| $199 (+10%) | +$932 | +$1,114 | +$1,355 | +$1,735 |
| $208 (+15%) | +$1,214 | +$1,379 | +$1,574 | +$1,735 |
| $217 (+20%) | +$1,392 | +$1,524 | +$1,658 | +$1,735 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.