Target Price Playground
TMUS
$156.44
🟢
TMUS IV: 33.8% — LOW
(-38.7% vs 30d avg of 55.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $156.44 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $170 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.21 · Δ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $170 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$1,677 (10.9%) on $15,323 risked, vs +$1,356 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $15,644. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $170 by Dec 18
+$1,677
+10.9% on $15,323 risked
Max Profit
+$1,677
If the stock ≥ $170 at expiry
Max Loss
−$15,323
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$153.23
-2.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
73.92 / 5.85 / -20.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | -$2,814 | -$2,809 | -$2,808 | -$2,808 |
| $133 (-15%) | -$2,049 | -$2,031 | -$2,026 | -$2,026 |
| $141 (-10%) | -$1,311 | -$1,268 | -$1,245 | -$1,243 |
| $149 (-5%) | -$628 | -$545 | -$478 | -$461 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$256 | -$145 | -$38 | +$8 |
| $156 (0%) ← spot | -$27 | +$102 | +$238 | +$321 |
| $160 (+2%) | +$185 | +$330 | +$496 | +$634 |
| $164 (+5%) | +$470 | +$633 | +$835 | +$1,103 |
| $170 (+9%) ← target | +$762 | +$937 | +$1,160 | +$1,677 |
| $172 (+10%) | +$853 | +$1,029 | +$1,252 | +$1,677 |
| $180 (+15%) | +$1,129 | +$1,293 | +$1,487 | +$1,677 |
| $188 (+20%) | +$1,314 | +$1,452 | +$1,592 | +$1,677 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.