Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.25
๐ข
TMUS IV: 28.7% โ LOW
(-48.3% vs 30d avg of 55.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $181.25 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $195 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.8 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $195 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$1,956 (11.1%) on $17,545 risked, vs +$1,376 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $18,125. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $195 by Aug 21
+$1,956
+11.1% on $17,545 risked
Max Profit
+$1,956
If the stock โฅ $195 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$17,545
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$175.44
-3.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.59 / 7.46 / -27.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$3,065 | -$3,049 | -$3,045 | -$3,045 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$2,198 | -$2,158 | -$2,140 | -$2,139 |
| $163 (-10%) | -$1,378 | -$1,298 | -$1,243 | -$1,233 |
| $172 (-5%) | -$632 | -$500 | -$377 | -$326 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$233 | -$69 | +$106 | +$217 |
| $181 (0%) โ spot | +$12 | +$195 | +$403 | +$580 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$239 | +$438 | +$676 | +$943 |
| $190 (+5%) | +$541 | +$758 | +$1,028 | +$1,486 |
| $195 (+8%) โ target | +$768 | +$992 | +$1,276 | +$1,955 |
| $199 (+10%) | +$951 | +$1,177 | +$1,459 | +$1,955 |
| $208 (+15%) | +$1,251 | +$1,462 | +$1,708 | +$1,955 |
| $218 (+20%) | +$1,460 | +$1,642 | +$1,829 | +$1,955 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.