Is TSLA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TSLA is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSLA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of TSLA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSLA to be between $330.89 and $362.41. The current price is $365.44.

What is the analyst price target for TSLA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSLA is $390.09. This implies a potential upside of 6.7% from current levels.

Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSLA - Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES

$365.44

1.88 (0.52%) ▲

5d: -2.9%

30d: +11.58%

90d: -8.45%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 28, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $328.58 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 4.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSLA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 22.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$98.64

Based on 13.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$61.25

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSLA is currently trading at $365.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $330.89 to $362.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 169.3) is in line with its historical norms (161.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $345.20, while resistance sits at $384.04.

Market Sentiment: TSLA scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $330.89 - $362.41

Company Quality Score 39/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 27.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($390.09)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 25.5% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $330.89 - $362.41

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $345.20

Resistance Level $384.04

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 169.29

Wall Street Target $390.09 (+6.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 25.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -3.0%

Profit Margin 3.7%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.7% premium

PE vs Historical 169.3 vs 161.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $371.65 (+2%)

2-Year Target $377.97 (+3%)

3-Year Target $384.40 (+5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 169→161) PE COMPRESSION $365.79 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 169.3, Growth: 22.0%) $664.20 (+82%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 22.0%) $79.13 (-78%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 22.0%) $67.26 (-82%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 153.85 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.38

Bull Case $441.27 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 161.5

Base Case $365.44 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 153.9

Bear Case $279.56 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 138.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM

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Technical Signals Check

Is TSLA showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Kathleen Wilson-Thompson SELL 25809 shares 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

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