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Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$390.22
-7.23 (-1.82%) â–ŧ
5d: +8.93% 30d: +7.66% 90d: +15.01%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$365.93 – $396.72
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
180.7x FAIR
vs 163.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$412.48
+5.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$338.15 / $414.23
Trend: Sideways
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: TSLA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
TSLA is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; TSLA has been on it 1 day). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-13.

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Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 3, 2026 at $397.71 · last confirmed Nov 13, 2026

Strength: 7.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.27
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSLA is currently trading at $390.22, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $365.93 to $396.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 180.7) compared to its historical average (163.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $338.15, while resistance sits at $414.23.

Market Sentiment: TSLA scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $365.93 - $396.72
Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 74.8%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $365.93 - $396.72
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level $338.15
Resistance Level $414.23
Current Trend Sideways
Technical data as of Nov 13, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($412.48)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.4% growth with -0.2% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 180.72
Wall Street Target $412.48 (+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -43.6%
Profit Margin 3.1%
Valuation Premium vs History +3.4% premium
PE vs Historical 180.7 vs 163.5 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +3.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $403.49 (+3%)
2-Year Target $417.21 (+7%)
3-Year Target $431.39 (+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 181→164) PE COMPRESSION $390.28 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 180.7, Growth: 25.2%) $766.35 (+96%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 25.2%) $84.21 (-78%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 25.2%) $71.58 (-82%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 158.73 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.46
Bull Case $471.19 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 166.7
Base Case $390.22 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 158.7
Bear Case $298.52 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 142.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TSLA)

Bullish 21 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
19 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 15, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Tesla Cybercab is now available for purchase with a mandatory monthly software subscription and operational restrictions, as reported in the latest article. Social media sentiment is predominantly bullish, with 78.9% of messages expressing optimism towards $TSLA.
Key Retail Themes: new Cybercab availability monthly subscription and operational restrictions
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 11:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is TSLA showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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