What is the fair value of TSLA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSLA to be between $359.80 and $379.26. The current price is $372.22.

What is the analyst price target for TSLA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSLA is $401.40. This implies a potential upside of 7.8% from current levels.

Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSLA - Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES

$372.22

-2.36 (-0.63%) ▼

5d: +4.93%

30d: -1.51%

90d: +20.37%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 20, 2026 at $373.75 · last confirmed Oct 23, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: TSLA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 24.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$104.23

Based on 14.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$64.72

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSLA is currently trading at $372.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $359.80 to $379.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 173.1) is in line with its historical norms (162.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $349.33, while resistance sits at $388.86.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $359.80 - $379.26

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 71.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($401.40)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.2% growth with 25.5% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $359.80 - $379.26

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $349.33

Resistance Level $388.86

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 23, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 173.13

Wall Street Target $401.40 (+7.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 25.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -3.0%

Profit Margin 3.7%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.2% premium

PE vs Historical 173.1 vs 162.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $380.41 (+2%)

2-Year Target $388.78 (+4%)

3-Year Target $397.33 (+7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 173→162) PE COMPRESSION $372.72 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 173.1, Growth: 24.8%) $723.33 (+94%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.8%) $82.98 (-78%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 24.8%) $70.53 (-81%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 158.73 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.34

Bull Case $449.46 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 166.7

Base Case $372.22 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 158.7

Bear Case $284.75 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 142.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM

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