TSLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSLA - Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
$405.05
4.56 (1.14%)
▲
5d:
-0.34%
30d:
-2.93%
90d:
+10.08%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSLA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSLA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.55
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSLA is currently trading at $405.05, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $398.51 to $430.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 162.0) is in line with its historical norms (163.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $380.15, while resistance sits at $418.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $380.15, while resistance sits at $418.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$398.51 -
$430.40
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($420.55)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$398.51 -
$430.40
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$380.15
Resistance Level
$418.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
162.02
Wall Street Target
$420.55
(+3.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
162.0 vs 163.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$403.83
(0%)
2-Year Target
$402.62
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$401.42
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 162→163)
$404.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 162.0, Growth: 21.3%)
$723.14
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.3%)
$97.21
(-76%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 21.3%)
$82.63
(-80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (200x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (162x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 200.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.03
Bull Case
$489.10
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 210.0
Base Case
$405.05
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 200.0
Bear Case
$309.86
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 180.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 162.0 to 163.4
Stabilization Target:
$408.50
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kathleen Wilson-Thompson
SELL
25809 shares
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
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