Is TXN stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TXN is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of TXN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TXN to be between $262.76 and $286.88. The current price is $287.85.

What is the analyst price target for TXN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TXN is $324.71. This implies a potential upside of 12.8% from current levels.

Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$287.85

6.11 (2.17%) ▲

5d: -3.16%

30d: +9.27%

90d: -4.43%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your TXN Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026 6d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 13, 2026 at $285.77 · last confirmed Oct 13, 2026

Strength: 5.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 19.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$435.99

Based on 11.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$270.71

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $287.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $262.76 to $286.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.4) is in line with its historical norms (29.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $277.06, while resistance sits at $298.75.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $324.71 (+12.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $262.76 - $286.88

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 48.6%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($324.71)
WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $262.76 - $286.88

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $277.06

Resistance Level $298.75

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 28.41

Wall Street Target $324.71 (+12.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 22.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 51.8%

Profit Margin 31.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 28.4 vs 29.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $284.68 (-1%)

2-Year Target $281.55 (-2%)

3-Year Target $278.46 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 28→29) $288.18 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 28.4, Growth: 19.2%) $487.39 (+69%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.2%) $340.74 (+18%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 19.2%) $289.63 (+1%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 42.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.57

Bull Case $477.98 (+66%)

Analyst growth 54.2%, PE expands to 47.2

Base Case $434.53 (+51%)

Market implied 54.2%, PE stable at 42.9

Bear Case $191.58 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.4 to 29.4

Stabilization Target: $297.91 (+3.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.5%

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Last updated: October 13, 2026 10:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:43 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced TXN Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXN price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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