TXN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$273.43
-3.16 (-1.14%)
▼
5d:
-1.79%
30d:
-9.22%
90d:
-10.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $286.08 · last confirmed Aug 13, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$420.60
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$261.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $273.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $275.38 to $298.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.2) is in line with its historical norms (30.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $264.74, while resistance sits at $289.62.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $324.45 (+18.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $264.74, while resistance sits at $289.62.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $324.45 (+18.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$275.38 -
$298.53
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($324.45)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$275.38 -
$298.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$264.74
Resistance Level
$289.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.25
Wall Street Target
$324.45
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.8%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.3 vs 30.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$264.95
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$256.74
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$248.78
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→30)
$273.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.3, Growth: 18.0%)
$449.81
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.0%)
$333.93
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 18.0%)
$283.84
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.47
Bull Case
$471.85
(+73%)
Analyst growth 55.1%, PE expands to 47.0
Base Case
$428.95
(+57%)
Market implied 55.1%, PE stable at 42.8
Bear Case
$188.08
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.3 to 30.0
Stabilization Target:
$301.02
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-18
Hagop H Kozanian
SELL
6843 shares
2026-02-17
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Advanced TXN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXN price and gamma walls.
