Target Price Playground
VRTX
$558.88
🟢
VRTX IV: 36.1% — LOW
(-55.0% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $490 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $560 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $27.62 · Δ -0.52
SHORT PUT · $510 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $13.5 · Δ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $490 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$3,588 (254.1%) on $1,412 risked, vs $-6,888 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $55,888. Options give 20.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $490. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $490 by Dec 18
+$3,588
+254.1% on $1,412 risked
Max Profit
+$3,588
If the stock ≤ $510 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,412
Net debit
Break-even
$545.88
-2.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-27.9 / -1.18 / 15.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $447 (-20%) | +$3,127 | +$3,318 | +$3,517 | +$3,588 |
| $475 (-15%) | +$2,653 | +$2,883 | +$3,237 | +$3,588 |
| $490 (-12%) ← target | +$2,317 | +$2,528 | +$2,902 | +$3,588 |
| $503 (-10%) | +$1,988 | +$2,157 | +$2,484 | +$3,588 |
| $531 (-5%) | +$1,220 | +$1,241 | +$1,285 | +$1,494 |
| $548 (-2%) | +$760 | +$683 | +$522 | -$182 |
| $559 (0%) ← spot | +$468 | +$334 | +$63 | -$1,300 |
| $570 (+2%) | +$195 | +$15 | -$331 | -$1,412 |
| $587 (+5%) | -$171 | -$395 | -$783 | -$1,412 |
| $615 (+10%) | -$652 | -$885 | -$1,202 | -$1,412 |
| $643 (+15%) | -$977 | -$1,167 | -$1,356 | -$1,412 |
| $671 (+20%) | -$1,179 | -$1,309 | -$1,400 | -$1,412 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.