Target Price Playground
VRTX
$558.88
🟢
VRTX IV: 36.1% — LOW
(-55.0% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $630 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $560 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $28.36 · Δ 0.5
SHORT CALL · $600 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $13.16 · Δ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $630 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$2,480 (163.2%) on $1,520 risked, vs +$7,112 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $55,888. Options give 12.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $630. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $630 by Dec 18
+$2,480
+163.2% on $1,520 risked
Max Profit
+$2,480
If the stock ≥ $600 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,520
Net debit
Break-even
$575.20
+2.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
19.8 / -6.12 / 6.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $447 (-20%) | -$1,426 | -$1,488 | -$1,518 | -$1,520 |
| $475 (-15%) | -$1,268 | -$1,393 | -$1,500 | -$1,520 |
| $503 (-10%) | -$977 | -$1,152 | -$1,387 | -$1,520 |
| $531 (-5%) | -$541 | -$708 | -$1,013 | -$1,520 |
| $548 (-2%) | -$225 | -$349 | -$606 | -$1,520 |
| $559 (0%) ← spot | +$1 | -$82 | -$265 | -$1,520 |
| $570 (+2%) | +$233 | +$198 | +$113 | -$514 |
| $587 (+5%) | +$579 | +$620 | +$700 | +$1,162 |
| $615 (+10%) | +$1,118 | +$1,265 | +$1,551 | +$2,480 |
| $630 (+13%) ← target | +$1,375 | +$1,558 | +$1,886 | +$2,480 |
| $643 (+15%) | +$1,565 | +$1,763 | +$2,090 | +$2,480 |
| $671 (+20%) | +$1,899 | +$2,094 | +$2,344 | +$2,480 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.