Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
VRTX
$558.88
🟢
VRTX IV: 36.1% — LOW (-55.0% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $590 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $510 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $13.5 · Δ -0.24
P&L at Expiry Now $559 Target $590 $391 $559 $727
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If VRTX hits $590 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$1,350 (2.7%) on $-1,350 credit (max loss $49,650), vs +$3,112 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $55,888. Options give 0.5× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if VRTX hits $590 by Dec 18
+$1,350
+2.7% on $49,650 max loss
Max Profit
+$1,350
If the stock ≥ $510 at expiry
Max Loss
−$49,650
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$496.50
-11.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
23.62 / 21.16 / -65.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

VRTX Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$447 (-20%) -$5,196 -$5,027 -$4,903 -$4,940
$475 (-15%) -$3,117 -$2,789 -$2,408 -$2,145
$503 (-10%) -$1,487 -$1,061 -$493 +$649
$531 (-5%) -$324 +$99 +$643 +$1,350
$548 (-2%) +$171 +$553 +$999 +$1,350
$559 (0%) ← spot +$431 +$773 +$1,141 +$1,350
$570 (+2%) +$641 +$940 +$1,231 +$1,350
$590 (+6%) ← target +$915 +$1,137 +$1,311 +$1,350
$615 (+10%) +$1,123 +$1,262 +$1,342 +$1,350
$643 (+15%) +$1,247 +$1,321 +$1,349 +$1,350
$671 (+20%) +$1,306 +$1,341 +$1,350 +$1,350
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.